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3 May 2017

Thoughts on Outright Betting…

In Outright Betting, a bet is placed on the result of a competition, instead of on a single game or match in that competition.
Typically, this is betting on Real Madrid to win the Champions League, or Roger Federer to win Wimbledon.

Let’s see how you can take advantage of outright markets on the betting exchange

Outright bets are characterized by higher returns when compared to regular match bets, and as such look very appealing to many sports punters.
But this time, we will focus on anticipating odds movement, rather than betting on a team or player to win several consecutive matches.
Indeed, if you like to place Back bets at the start of a tournament, and wait for the final result (for instance, betting on Federer at 4.6 to win 2017 Wimbledon), this is equivalent to betting, with risks involved at each match played.

This article is more about bettors’ psychology.
Psychology is actually the main essence of any betting activity… and it is possible to take advantage of it!

Knowing what the public thinks (or is likely to think):

One good example this week is on a politic event: the French presidential election.

Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen both qualified for the second round on April 23, with Macron’s odds dropping from 1.80 to 1.14 to become France’s next president.
Here, we have to highlight the precision of the polls published before the end of the first round. Indeed, the scores obtained by both Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen were very close to the polls predictions.
Should we expect the same thing in the second round?

According to every polls released by IFOP, Emmanuel Macron is seen beating far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the second round of French elections by 60% to 40%.
Let’s be honest, 60% to 40% is a huge margin when it involves millions of voters, especially knowing that only two weeks separate the first from the second round.

Therefore, you could easily guess that Macron’s odds (1.14) would go down… and that is exactly what happened.
On Betfair Exchange, Macron went from 1.14 to 1.10 in one week (no specific event happened that week), giving you the opportunity to lay at 1.11 and make a profit (remember that every cent does count).
The centrist candidate is very likely to become France’s next president, but the wisest traders will always secure a profit beforehand, to prevent themselves from a big loss.
Thanks to our Level Profit function, it is very straightforward to secure a profit: you can either balance your potential winnings for a “fifty/fifty” profit (same winnings whether Macron or Le Pen wins), or cover your initial stake to earn more if Macron wins on May 7.

Another example of a similar situation, was during Rio Olympics held last year.
Usain Bolt was, as always, the big favorite to win the 100-meter gold medal. After he won his semi-final race, Usain Bolt was available at 1.10 on Betfair Exchange to win the gold.
The final occured 75 minutes later. Within these 75 minutes, Usain Bolt’s odds dropped from 1.10 to 1.05. The public backed once again the heavy favorite (who would dare to bet against Bolt?).
Same advice as above, you could have easily traded your positions to make a nice profit before the start of the race, and regardless of the final result.

Last year, the tennis world #1 Andy Murray won the BBC Sports Personality of the Year Award for the third time, on December 18, 2016, four weeks after winning his last ATP title of the year.
During these four weeks, his odds dropped from 1.20 to 1.12, as most bettors placed their bets only two or three days before the closing of the event.

Finding value in the odds is the best way to make money from sports betting, and it takes experience. But it is also about predicting what the public is likely to bet on, especially if you like trading.

Remember that those who placed bets on Hillary Clinton on November 6, 2016, were able to make a profit 24 hours later (the day before Donald Trump’s victory) by trading their positions. Those who chose not to, lost a lot of money…

Any questions or comments? Please use the box below, we will happy to answer.

Easysportbet team

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