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18 Apr 2017

Betting on 2017 French presidential election

The first round of the 2017 French presidential election is coming on Sunday, April 23. The two candidates with the most votes will qualify for the second round, held on May 7.

In this article, we offer a quick overview of the markets available on Betfair betting exchange platform.

 

Since January, the presidential campaign has been punctuated by numerous twists, following the affair involving the favorite at the time, and candidate of the Republican right, François Fillon, whose odds were around 1.70 at the beginning of the year.

In the last few months, the most experienced traders were able to make very good profits, for instance by backing Alain Juppé (defeated by François Fillon in the party’s first ever open primary) at 100.0 during François Fillon first setbacks at the end of January, trading around 4.0 when the Republican candidate got formally indicted.
The candidate of the far-left party France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, was also available at 300.0 at the beginning of the year, for a possible trade at 8.5 a few days ago, thanks to a stunning remontada in the polls.

On today’s date, Tuesday April 18, Betfair‘s odds on Next President market are as follows:

Macron 2.14
Fillon 4.3
Le Pen 4.9
Melanchon 9.4

According to many analysts, the Front National candidate, Marine Le Pen, has the strongest base of voters (voters least likely to change their voting intentions). Therefore, she is the logical favorite to qualify for the second round, followed by Emmanuel Macron, centrist party, whose supporters seem to be more inclined (according to the polls) to change their vote at the last moment.
However, Emmanuel Macron is predicted to win in case of a second round against Marine Le Pen.

The latest Presitrack poll (OpinionWay Orpi), published yesterday, gives Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron 22% of voting intentions. The FN candidate is down one point while her rival is stable. Behind, François Fillon is approaching 21%, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon 18%.
In the second round, Emmanuel Macron would be a clear favorite to defeat Marine Le Pen by 64% of voting intentions against 36%. François Fillon would also be elected by 60% against 40%.

Caution is needed. It is important to remember that no poll were able to predict the election of Donald Trump in the USA, the Yes to Brexit and the overwhelming victory of François Fillon in the first round of right party’s primary.

At Betfair, you also have access to other markets. To Finish in the Final 2 allows you to bet on qualification for the second round. Here are the odds:

Le Pen 1.31
Macron 1.5
Fillon 2.82
Melanchon 4.5

More tricky, Final two gives you the opportunity to bet on the names of the two candidates who will be in the final on May 7:

Le Pen / Macron 2.1
Fillon / Le Pen 4.8
Fillon / Macron 5.8
Le Pen / Melanchon / 8
Melanchon / Macron 14

Note that a total of eleven candidates take part in the first round this Sunday. Log in to your Easysportbet account to see all markets available on Betfair Exchange platform.

We wish you good luck, and encourage you to share your predictions and observations by leaving a comment below.

Easysportbet team

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