In a basketball game, markets can be very volatile. The odds are bound to move quickly as several lead changes might occur, especially when teams with high scoring history face each other.
Therefore, the potential is there to find great opportunities to trade out for guaranteed profits.
Like in other sports, one interesting strategy is to lay the underdogs if they are winning at halftime, especially when they are leading by over 10 points. The lower the odds, the better.
In a case like this one, make sure to lay a team that has a losing record and is playing a team with a winning record. Chances are that the underdog is over-performing and could get “back to normal” during the second half.
For instance, Golden State may be trailing to Denver by 12 points at halftime. Denver’s shooting statistics might be better than what they usually achieve, for example 52% compared to their usual average of just 43%. Will Denver be able to keep it up in second half?
And it could be the other way around for Golden State who clearly under-performed in the first half compared to their excellent shooting statistics this season, then they would be expected to fight back and at least keep the score closer. You do not need Golden State to win the game in order to make a comfortable profit, as long as you close your trade at the right moment.
You can apply the same logic at halftime on the “over/under” market: check the statistics and see if the first half totals is below or above the average of both teams. If the total has been poor, statistically speaking both teams are expected to score more in the second half.
Of course no trading strategy works all the time. You will always have to deal with losses, but remember to close your trades before it is too late.
That is also why we recommend to back high / lay low, as the potential loss is always smaller than the other way around.
Don’t hesitate to drop a comment below if you have any question or if you are willing to discuss about other trading tips.