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7 Jul 2015

Wimbledon Men’s Betting: Murray to be quick out of the blocks against Pospisil

Murray weighs in with 51 percent of his break point opportunities converted and that’s after playing Ivo Karlovic, so he is clearly a far better returner than Pospisil.

The final eight in contention for the Wimbledon 2015 Men’s Singles title are in action on Wednesday after another winning day on ‘Manic Monday’ that was a single serve away from being perfect.

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The young Aussie was in a mood for much of the match, but somehow got himself to *6-4 in the fourth set tie break, only to blow it and the five sets wager with two double faults.

Murray, as I stated in my pre-tournament preview, has hardly had the ‘tough draw’ that many were predicting and a quarter final against Vasek Pospisil is hardly a terrifying prospect for Murray backers and fans.

The Canadian has really surprised me – not by making the last eight, but by playing two five set matches in a row without some injury or other forcing an early bath.

Pospisil is one of the most injury prone players on the ATP Tour and the chances of him being in a fit state to even challenge Murray on Wednesday are slim.

The current Wimbledon doubles champion (with Jack Sock) was knocked out of that event this year by Jamie Murray (and John Peers) and Andy will almost certainly make it a family double.

Murray and Pospisil have met three times in the past, with the former winning all three in straight sets, and for me the best choice of wager here is the set one market.

Pospisil doesn’t figure in the top-56 in return games won in 2015 or 2014, while Murray is number three in 2015 and top of the list of players this Wimbledon in terms of break points converted of those who have played three or more matches.

Murray weighs in with 51 percent of his break point opportunities converted and that’s after playing Ivo Karlovic, so he is clearly a far better returner than Pospisil, who is lacking in that department.

The set one correct score of either 6-3 or 6-4 (depending on who serves first) at 4.50 looks the way to go here, with Murray a 1.05 shot. One break will surely be enough and if Murray serves first it’s 6-3 or 6-4 if he doesn’t.

The 3-0 and over/under bets aren’t for me in this one, with Murray only having won two of his seven Wimbledon quarter finals in straight sets – the last one being against Feli Lopez back in 2011.

This has been a round he struggles in, with the loss to Grigor Dimitrov last year and a five setter with Fernando Verdasco in 2013 and a tough four setter with David Ferrer in 2012, plus another tough one in 2010 against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

It does look much more comfortable this time around though and he should win it in three or four.

Pospisil has out-aced Murray in all three of their clashes, despite not winning a set in any of them, so that market could be worth a look when it pops up.
Murray will most likely face Roger Federer in the semi finals, with the Swiss facing Gilles Simon, but Fed is no cert any more at this stage of majors, with three losses from his last seven major quarter finals.

Simon has been striking the ball very well and although there may have been an injury issue involved in his more comfortable than expected win over Tomas Berdych it will still be a nice confidence boost for Gillou.

Federer has won the last five against Simon, but one was a retirement, two were five setters and another ended 7-6, 7-6, so it’s been far from a cosy match-up for the Swiss.

Simon’s retrieving and tactical nous make him a tricky opponent for most and of their seven meetings Fed has only won one comfortably, which was on clay two years ago in Rome.

This will be their first clash on grass and in a sense Fed’s form coming into this isn’t that relevant as we have seen him glide into the latter stages of majors unruffled many times only to lose to a lower ranked player.

At the French it was Stan Wawrinka and over five sets these days he is a sketchy bet at a price like 1.15.

He should win, but there’s no value in that price and I like the 4.50 about Simon winning set two in this one.

Gillou is often a slow starter, while Federer tends to be much quicker, and how many times have we seen Simon grind his way back into matches after going behind?

The over 34.5 games is also an option, as is the +6.5 games on Simon, but they seem a little tight and I like the set two option.

Recommended Bets

Back Murray in set one 6-3 or 6-4 at 4.50
Back Simon to win set two at 4.50

The men’s quarter finals are the order of the day at the All England Club on Wednesday and Sean Calvert expects a comfortable passage to the semi finals for Andy Murray.

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