Through this article, we will highlight how crucial it is for sports bettors to understand the odds by exposing practices of bookmakers.
We will find out why many of you struggle to make any profit in the long-term.
Let us go through a few examples on some betting markets, often referred as “Fifty-Fifty”, be it on football, soccer, tennis, NHL, etc. This situation usually occurs when two tennis players’ ranking are very close, or in football (soccer) when Team 1 is favorite to win the match at 1.90, Double Chance “Draw or Team 2” will also pays the same odds of 1.90.
This situation is particularly common on the “Over/Under” markets in tennis, football, basketball, etc.
Euro 2016 of football just started and a beginner bettor (A) decides to bet on the match between Germany and Poland. His bookmaker offers the odds of 1.80 / 1.80 on the “Over/Under 2.5 goals” market.
A more experienced bettor (B) bets at another bookmaker on the same market at the odds of 1.90 / 1.90.
A third bettor (C), professional for a few years, has the odds of 1.95 / 1.95 at his disposal.
Our three bettors decide to pick the same selection “Under 2.5 goals” with a stake of €100 each. And a winning bet it is.
Bettor (A) wins €80, (B) wins €90 and (C) cash in €95.
Bettor (C) being a professional bettor, (A) and (B) decide to follow every of his bets for the rest of the year. Our three bettors will bet on the same selections but each of them decide to keep betting at their own favorite bookmaker.
After a few weeks, by playing only on “Fifty-Fifty” markets with a same stake of €100 on each bet, they manage to obtain an encouraging 52% success rate.
After 80 bets:
(A) on 1.80 odds has lost €512
(B) on 1.90 odds has lost €96
(C) on 1.95 odds cash in €112
Still not aware of the problem, (A) and (B) will keep trying, and their success rate will remain stable at 52%.
After 300 bets:
(A) has lost €1,920
(B) has lost €360
(C) cash in €420
And after 1,000 bets…
(A) has lost €6,400
(B) has lost €1,200
(C) cash in a total of €1,400
A 52% success rate is quite impressive, yet our two bettors have to go through a serious financial loss.
With this hypothetical example, we realize how crucial it is for any serious bettor to have the best odds available. Our two bettors learnt it the hard way…
Any question or comment? We will happy to answer.